European spot and contract rates are rising together again.

After three quarters of diverging trends, spot and contract rates are now rising in tandem. The Q2 2026 report by IRU, Upply, and Ti shows a sharp rise in both European contract markets (long-term agreements) and the spot market (short-term transactions). Contract rates rose to 148 index points. The spot market—which is far more susceptible to sudden fluctuations in demand, fuel prices, and vehicle availability—saw an even sharper increase, reaching 146.8 index points.

Expensive fuel and the Hormuz crisis are driving up transport rates.

However, the sharp rise in prices is not due to increased demand for transport services or a lack of available vehicles. The primary factor driving up rates is the rising cost of diesel fuel. The price of diesel in the EU has risen by an average of 27% compared to last year. The peak price was reached in April—€2.19 per liter. Eurostat data shows that between June and July 2026, diesel prices increased in 17 EU countries, with the largest rise recorded in… Poland. The price surged by as much as 13.4% in just one month. We surpassed countries such as Germany (+12.7%) and Greece (+12.1%). Regarding petrol prices during the same period, the sharpest increases were again recorded in Poland (+17.2%) and Germany (+11.0%). Fuel price fluctuations are not random; they stem primarily from political turmoil—specifically, decisions regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which as much as 20% of the world’s oil flows. Fuel is a key cost item for carriers, who must now allocate nearly 10% more for this expense. Added to this are road tolls, wages for drivers and other staff, as well as costs for vehicle maintenance, insurance, and financing…

What’s next for European road transport rates?

Market participants themselves expect price increases in the second half of 2026. High and volatile fuel prices, combined with the ongoing increase in road tolls, do not indicate a quick return to lower transport rates or their continued sustainability. Carriers can no longer absorb further increases in operating costs on their own and are increasingly forced to factor them into quotes for new orders, driving up rates. This cost pressure is compounded by the limited availability of truck drivers; the IRU reports 502,000 unfilled positions—representing approximately 13% of the total demand for drivers.

Given the high volatility of fuel prices and associated factors, carriers struggle to accurately price individual orders or negotiate profitable terms for long-term contracts. Authorities in some EU countries are attempting to assist carriers in this uphill battle against the global geopolitical situation. For instance, Spain has enacted a decree mandating the automatic pass-through of fuel price increases, backed by the threat of penalties.

Massive transition to indexed contracts

One consequence of the uncertainty in the transport services market is the growing trend of using indexed contracts, in which transport rates are periodically adjusted based on a pre-established indicator—such as diesel prices or road toll rates. This allows for the risk of market changes to be spread between both parties to the transaction and reduces the need to renegotiate the terms of cooperation each time.

How do carriers try to maintain competitive rates?

Carriers have no control over diesel prices, road tolls, driver shortages, or the global geopolitical situation. However, they can mitigate the risks associated with sudden rate fluctuations. Skillful planning of transport orders is key; the less time available to secure the right vehicle, the more likely it is that the transport will have to be arranged at a higher cost. For regular transport orders, it is worth considering a contractual arrangement or establishing a transparent price adjustment mechanism linked, for example, to changes in fuel costs or road tolls. This helps avoid situations where every price increase triggers a renegotiation of the entire contract. Obtaining comprehensive information about the cargo during the quoting stage is also crucial. Knowledge of the type of goods, exact dimensions, weight, loading and unloading schedules, vehicle requirements, and conditions at both locations enables proper process planning and minimizes the risk of unexpected additional costs.

At Silesian Logistics, we constantly monitor the situation on the European market, have a team of experienced forwarders and use advanced transport technologies. This enables us to organize shipments under competitive terms—even during periods of unpredictable spikes in spot and contract rates that are beyond our control. We plan each order individually, selecting the optimal route, vehicle, and driver. As a result, our clients are assured of efficient, safe, and timely transport at the most attractive price possible.

Sources:

• IRU, Upply, Transport Intelligence – European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark Q2 2026
• Transport Intelligence – European Road Freight Rates Q2 2026
• Eurostat – Evolution of fuel prices in July 2026