The real consequences of e-TOLL cost increases in 2026
The year 2026 brought one of the most economically noticeable changes for the road transport industry – historic increases in the e-TOLL system, exceeding 40%! The drastic toll increases, coupled with the expansion of the toll road network by hundreds of kilometers, pose a serious threat to the profitability of transport orders and the financial stability of companies in the TSL sector. However, the consequences of e-TOLL increases affect not only carriers but also the entire supply chain, local governments, and local communities.
What has changed since February 1, 2026?
On February 1, 2026, e-TOLL road tolls in Poland increased by an average of 40-42%. At the same time, 645 km of toll road sections covered by the system were added. Currently, there are nearly 6000 km of them across the country. This translates into a critical increase in operating costs, which many transport companies, especially the smallest ones, are unable to pass on to their customers. Attempts to negotiate rates with clients often end in refusal and the risk of termination of cooperation. According to the latest report by the Transport and Logistics Poland (TLP) Employers’ Association, as many as 60% of Polish carriers are forced to cover fee increases from their own margins, and over 73% expect a significant decline in profitability in the near future.
Deterioration of the economic situation of micro and small businesses
The effects of e-TOLL increases are most felt by micro-enterprises – with fleets of up to 10 vehicles. For many of them, the increase in fees has become a deciding factor in their market success. It’s worth remembering that the Polish TSL sector is primarily comprised of micro and small businesses, each owning a few to a dozen vehicles. Most of them cannot raise service prices to compensate for the new burdens, and over 63% declare that they will operate at the edge of profitability in the coming months. Over 70% of micro and small carriers fear a decline in profitability. This is a clear signal that the stability of the domestic TSL sector is at risk. In the context of international competitiveness, it’s worth noting that Polish transport has for years based its advantage on price, which may now be shrinking.
Slowing down the development of companies and consolidation of the TSL sector
The increase in road tolls has failed to stimulate development and modernization. For many transport companies it has become a factor inhibiting investment activities. Carriers, especially the smallest ones, must focus primarily on… survival, not on purchasing new vehicles, hiring employees, or investing in technology. Nearly half of TSL companies plan to reduce their fleets or limit operations by withdrawing from less profitable contracts. This does not portend a rapid replacement of their fleet with more environmentally friendly ones. Instead of a green transformation, companies are taking typically defensive actions, fighting to maintain financial liquidity. Moreover, as many as 38% of TSL companies predict inevitable market consolidation, i.e., the collapse of the smallest carriers and their absorption by stronger players. Larger entities operate on a large scale and have a stronger negotiating position. On the other hand, consolidation or cooperation between carriers may prove to be a saving grace against bankruptcy. Industry experts recommend that public authorities continuously monitor consolidation processes to prevent excessive market concentration and the weakening of the position of the smallest companies – those most at risk of bankruptcy.
A blow to consumer wallets and local government budgets
Most goods in Poland are transported by commercial vehicles. Manufacturing, retail, e-commerce, and construction companies allocate a significant portion of their budgets to road transport. If carriers raise rates due to rising costs, this will impact consumers’ wallets in the long run, as the final prices of products and services will rise. It’s a simple and natural, yet brutal, economic mechanism. As transport costs rise, carriers attempt to pass on the new burden to their contractors. As a result, the contractor raises the prices of products or services for their customers, with the consumer ultimately bearing the brunt.
Local government budgets may also suffer. Currently, nearly 30% of carriers are willing to modify their routes to avoid using roads covered by the e-TOLL system. The choice will therefore fall on local roads, maintained by local governments, which, due to the significant increase in traffic volume, could cost municipalities and counties significantly more than before. Especially in smaller municipalities, roads are not designed to handle truck traffic. A possible consequence of carriers escaping to local roads will also be a decline in road safety and a decline in the overall quality of life for residents.
Summary
The e-TOLL rate increases are significantly reducing the profitability of Polish transport companies. Moreover, they coincide with other challenges facing the transport and logistics sector: rising employment costs, a shortage of professional drivers, soaring fuel prices, the introduction of the National Roads and Transport Authority (KSeF), and strong regulatory pressure from the EU. This time, adapting to the drastic increase in system costs may be more difficult than ever – especially for the smallest carriers.
Sources: Raport „Wpływ podwyżek e-TOLL na działalność firm transportowych”, Związek Pracodawców Transport i Logistyka Polska (TLP), https://tlp.org.pl/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/raport_-wplyw-podwyzek-e-toll-na-dzialalnosc-firm-transportowych.pdf